Widening of the Battlefield (Russia-Ukraine Conflict)
Why Russian deterrence of NATO is a positive development in anti-imperialism.
In my previous dispatch, I summarized some positive developments in the anti-imperialist front over the past few years, specifically anti-imperialist resistance around the world introducing new rules of engagement against the enemy. Israel was unable to strike Gaza without immediate missile retaliation, Saudis suffered drone strikes at key targets from the Yemeni resistance, and mass movements were successfully mobilized in Venezuela, Cuba, and Bolivia to successfully counter attempted regime change. Future aggression from the enemy cannot happen without taking into consideration these new developments. The classic tactics of imperialism have faced an iron-wall across the planet.
Since then, we were hearing about anti-imperialist victories nearly every week. Two weeks ago, Lebanese resistance was able to fly a drone over the Israeli occupation without losing it, later announcing that they now have the capacity to develop their own aerial systems without foreign aid. The Yemeni resistance conducted another drone strike, this time in UAE, in response to the comprador Arab nation hosting an Israeli diplomat. Most recently, however, Russia retaliated against the imperialists for NATO aggression crossing its ‘red line,’ pushing a clear message: cross it and face consequences. Russia’s actions exposed the West, specifically the United States, as a paper tiger.
Note: While I offer insight into how the Russia-Ukraine conflict fits into the wider scope of anti-imperialist struggle with minimally necessary background, comrade Rafa offers an analysis of the particularities of the conflict of Russia-Ukraine, which i highly recommend reading along with this.
What is “NATO aggression”?
To understand NATO and why anti-imperialists consider it “aggressive,” we need to take a step back. NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, otherwise known as the North Atlantic Alliance was established at the end of the second World War. It was a military pact between the North American and Western European capitalist states, based on the idea that if any member engages in war then all other members would automatically be involved on the basis of mutual defense.
Obviously, NATO’s existence was dangerous for the Soviet Union as it was specifically designed to counter the “threat of communism.” If the USSR came into conflict with any of these states, it would be thrown into a full war with nearly all of the capitalist centers of the world. At the end of the Cold War, the US promised that “NATO will not move one inch further East” if the USSR gave up its “influence” on East Germany, essentially handing Germany over to the imperialist bloc. This was a compromise for quickly deteriorating USSR. They were promised that NATO would stop absorbing nations into its military alliance East of existing members, effectively safeguarding the involvement of Central and Eastern European States.
Shortly, after the fall of the USSR, the US gave up on upholding its part of the bargain. Imperialists argue that the promise was made with the USSR specifically, however the Russian Federation, the inheritor of the USSR, argues that the signed treaty should be upheld regardless of which government is in power in Russia. The US is known for signing treaties and breaking them. Indigenous nations have suffered the violence of countless broken treaties, even though the US constitution claims that treaties are regarded as the “supreme law of the land.”
Since the fall of the USSR, NATO has absorbed Germany, Poland, Hungary, Romania, among others and including former Soviet states such as Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. The ultimate goal for the imperialists is to absorb all of the ex-Soviet states into NATO. The successful absorption of Georgia and Ukraine would be an unprecedented loss to anti-imperialism. However, Russia, partly from an anti-imperialist position, partly from a nationalist (think Fanon not US patriotism) pan-Russian position, and partly for it’s own oligarchy’s interests, is now saying enough is enough: Ukraine and Georgia will not be absorbed into NATO. For Russia, NATO’s continued march East upon its borders, staging of color revolutions around its borders, flooding surrounding states with arms and possibly nuclear weapons, is a significant act of aggression and rightfully so.
US Soft-Power in Eastern Europe
It is clear that the mechanisms of US imperialism have largely shifted from overt colonialism to subversive neocolonialism. Especially after the decolonization and national liberation movements of the 1950s and on, the empire found it more effective to wage protracted ideological and economic battles against their colonies and prospective colonies. Even in the US, we saw a shift into dealing with domestic colonies of the African diaspora and Indigenous nations through ideological operations such as diversity and inclusion.
The strategy of imperialists is to artificially create popular support for US-backed puppet leaders and policies which benefit the US. For example, one tactic is flooding the media in counties of the Global South with false portrayals of lavish American lifestyles to create demand in upper classes for American goods, junk products, and culture. Another tactic is to flood the countries with US capital in the forms of aid and loans designed to blackmail countries into American favor. A third form is financially driving popularization of pro-America leaders and parties through injecting money towards campaigns and running propaganda against anti-imperialist or even watered-down reformists and moderates. A fourth, and most distasteful form, is meddling in elections and vote counting, as well as framing winners of rigging. The US likes to bring its own democracy by disturbing native democracy.
Over the last two decades, Ukraine has faced all of these tactics and more. The Bush administration punished Ukraine for not reforming to the West until they managed to organize a color revolution to install a pro-US leader, Viktor Yushchenko, in 2004 (the same happened in Georgia a few months before). Yushchenko was married to a US citizen and was head of the central bank of Ukraine. He was put in place over the rightful winner, Viktor Yanukovych, a beloved politician from worker origins in Eastern Ukraine who was accused of corruption despite having widespread popular support.
When Obama came into presidency, he supported the new Ukrainian government with aid and loads to further influence them towards the EU and NATO. The US was on track to pull Ukraine into NATO through their protracted process of neocolonialism. However, in 2010 Viktor Yanukovych managed to finally secure presidency after winning elections through a full democratic process again. He was quickly removed from power through (another!) US and EU orchestrated color revolution in 2014 after refusing to sign an EU association agreement when offered a better economic deal from the Putin government.
The West had already been sponsoring Ukrainian institutions of civil society (specifically ones of neoliberal and neo Nazi affiliations) to push back against a “corrupt” Yanukovych regime if he indeed turned against the EU. The far-right Maiden revolution (revolution of dignity) was then initiated. A pro-Western puppet, an overt neo Nazi, was again put into power and the previously rejected EU association agreement was put into effect.
The association agreement is merely a stepping stone to work towards bringing Ukraine into NATO. A key tenant of the neocolonial process is to slowly work towards a goal, step by step. The EU association agreement is about creating the framework necessary to foster popular support for NATO even though most of the Ukrainian population had been against it. In fact, referendums were conducted in the EU about whether or not they should welcome Ukraine. In many countries, the people voted no due to the sheer corruption that was evident during the Maiden “revolution.” In the end, Ukraine is extremely important for NATO in terms of economic and military strategy for countering Russia/China, as well us disrupting the Belt Road Initiative, given Ukraine’s geographical position. The democratic will of people in the EU or in Ukraine does not matter to the imperialists.
The Fracturing of Ukraine
The 2014 coup led to the rule of the right-wing tyrant, Petro Poroshenko. Communist parties and any communist symbolism was banned. This is important because Eastern sections of Ukraine, a majority of which speak Russian and ethnically identify as Russian, still maintain strong sympathies to the Soviet past. But worse, Western Ukrainians who see themselves as “pure,” loathe Turkic, Slavic, and Russian ethnicities as “Eastern” oriental subhumans. They also associate the pan-Russian ethnicity with communism (note that Hitler pushed the idea that Jews and Marxists were one in the same). This resulted in cultural cleansing, beginning with the Ukrainian language being enforced as the only language in the country.
The population of Eastern Ukraine is not anti-Nazi and anti-NATO on moral principle (though many probably are) but because they are direct victims of these ideologies. After seeing a democratically elected leader overthrown, a process of integrating into the EU/NATO begun, and the mobilization of neo-Nazi forces to drive the Maiden revolutions, the wider region of Donbas declared itself as two independent republics in 2014: Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic. Similarly, Crimea sucessfully ran a referendum to formally integrate into the Russian Federation.
While Russia did use military means to help Crimeans integrate into Russia after they democratically decided to break from Ukraine, Putin’s government unfortunately did not go as far as recognizing the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Hard Resistance to Soft Power
Russians are the largest ethnic minority in Ukraine, making up 20% of the population, mostly concentrated in the East. The region of Donbas has been continuously shelled since the declaration of their independence resulting in an estimated 14,000 to 15,000 deaths. These brave people fought against the expansion of NATO into their lives but were not strong enough, on their own, to stop the process. US soft-power in Ukraine translated to material violence and the rise of Nazism across the country. For eight years, no one responded to the cries of help from Eastern Ukraine. Clearly all of this violence as not enough for Russia to intervene.
However, in November of 2021 (and earlier in the year), Putin warned of a ‘red line’ which if crossed, would result in a military response:
Strategic bombers, which carry precision weapons and are capable of carrying nuclear weapons, were flying as close as 20 kilometers to our [Russian] border. That represents a threat for us. What should we do? We would need to develop something similar to target those who threaten us. And we can do that even now. The emergence of such threats represents a ‘red line’ for us. […] I hope that it will not get to that and common sense and responsibility for their own countries and the global community will eventually prevail.
When asked if he wants to invade, he responded quite sharply:
If we sincerely strive for that, no one will fear any threats.
Fortunately, Russia finally acted on NATO and Nazi aggression this week. There was a qualitative change in the levels of NATO meddling in Ukraine and the final straw was indeed the US discussing re-arming Ukraine with long distance missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
First, Russia finally officially recognized Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics (Syria quickly followed suit). Secondly, Russia neutralized key Ukrainian military points within a 1.5 hour operation. Nazi strongholds in Donbas were obliterated. Third, a protracted struggle for disarming and de-Nazifying Ukraine began.
Since then, conflict has been ongoing. The Ukrainian government distributed upwards of 10,000 machine guns to civilians to fight Russian troops. Unsurprisingly this led to infighting and opportunism within an innocent civilian population.
Importance of the Russian Intervention
Russia as an independent capitalist state has betrayed various anti-imperialist struggles. To name a few, it supported sanctions on Iran, supported a no-fly zone over Libya, and labeled the Yemeni resistance as terrorists. Clearly, the Russian oligarchy directs Putin for their own benefit and not for some grand socialist struggle. Further, Russia could have recognized the independence movements in Donbas in 2014 but they did not.
However, it is important to recognize Russia’s position in anti-imperialism overall, specifically around breaking the unipolarity of the US. The targeted military strikes against the neo-Nazi Ukrainian regime is an overall win for the larger anti-imperialist struggle because until now, a ruthless and overreaching NATO was free to stomp around Central and Eastern Europe as it wished, no matter what violence it brought along with it.
Further, the US and its allies have learned an important lesson. The era of pushing their ideologies, “democracies,” and economic values freely and wantonly is over. Russia knows this as much as China. More importantly, Russia’s confidence and decisive actions, paired with the fact that American military strong-arming quickly folding into retreat and sanctions, affirms to the rest of the anti-imperialist movement the reality of Mao’s words: US imperialism is a paper tiger.
Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi’s words were similarly affirmed: "The U.S. does not have the qualification to say it wants to speak to China from a position of strength."
There are now consequences for stepping too far. Russian military deterrence joins the ranks of Iranian, Houthi, Korean, Syrian, and Palestinian military deterrence. The Ukrainian regime learned that, like the Kurds in Syria, the US would use them as pawns and discard them the minute resistance fights back.
After the West announced its first wave of sanctions, China immediately responded by completely opening up wheat import from Russia (wheat is a primary export). Russia will also be barred from SWIFT, an international transaction and banking system, effecting further cutting off the country from international trade. However, China and Russia already announced the development of a new and independent financial structure for trade back in December 2021. Russia is ready to deal with economic war. Military deterrence and recognizing breakaway republics in Ukraine is now politically feasible. The struggle between imperialism and the rest of the world has reached a new qualitative stage.
One Conflict, One Struggle
The world is flooded with conflict but the world is not flooded with isolated conflicts, each with his own “good guy” and “bad guy.” Real life is not a Marvel movie. The entire planet is engulfed in one major conflict: the domination of finance capital, strong-armed by the US state and it’s allies vs. all forces of decolonization, whether they are socialist of simply a nationalist movement for sovereignty. All conflicts fit into this larger struggle.
This is why people across the Global South celebrate when Palestinians strike back, when Bolivia fights back, or when Russia fights back. When the forces of decolonization draw a red line saying “you cannot cross this,” and have means to enforce it, this is a victory. Whether or not they end up enforcing it, the deterrence in itself is a victory.
The US position as the unipolar hegemon is being undone by all segments of the anti-imperialist front: Chinese economy, Russian and Iranian military deterrence, Palestinian/Syrian/Houthi determination, Latin American mass movements for democracy, and more.
The US continues to fail. In the West, we all sit on a moving train. This moving train is imperialism. To be neutral on this moving train means moving with the train. One can either stay on or jump off but there is no in between.
Reciting “no war but class war” or reducing the conflict down to “inter-imperialist rivalry” is idealist at best and completely reactionary at worst. Imperialism is the primary contradiction and nations have a right to resist it, whether they are the newly independent People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk or powerful states such as China and Russia, who are still under the boot of the imperialist financial system. Successful resistance to imperialism is a win for every victim of imperialism.
Pacifism or Active Struggle?
Resistance against imperialism is always met with a call to pacifism, especially in the West. When the victim of an aggressor hits back, suddenly the warhawks become new age Ghandhis. When protestors burned down a police station in Minneapolis following the murder of George Floyd, the liberal establishment started reciting MLK. When Palestinian resistance responded to Israeli drone strikes with rockets, media called for a ceasefire.
When thinking about war, I look to the idea that war cannot be ended without the use of war. I think about how hippies were protesting around pacifism while the Black Panthers were offering troops to the Vietnamese resistance. They understood that the Vietnamese struggle against imperialism is just and that a victory over the US would be a major blow to imperialism.
In the spirit of international revolutionary solidarity the Black Panther Party hereby offers to the National Liberation Front and Provisional Revolutionary Government of South Vietnam an undetermined number of troops to assist you in your fight against American imperialism. It is appropriate for the Black Panther Party to take this action at this time in recognition of the fact that your struggle is also our struggle, for we recognize that our common enemy is the American imperialist who is the leader of international bourgeois domination. There is not one fascist or reactionary government in the world today that could stand without the support of United States imperialism. Therefore our problem is international, and we offer these troops in recognition of the necessity for inter-national alliances to deal with this problem.
Letter to the National Liberation Front of South Vietnam
Huey P. Newton
Unfortunately major socialist parties in the US also offered anti-war positions, completely divorced from a larger anti-imperialist picture. No one cared when the people of Donbas were under siege for eight years or when Russia was being encircled by the US military flooding arms into his expanding NATO territory. When Russia (and the people of Donbas) stood up for themselves, suddenly, communists in the imperialist core joined the ranks of the neoliberal establishment to frame Russia as an aggressor “gone too far.” Or that “both sides were bad.” Reactionary Trotskyism and chauvinism infests the left across the West.
War, like class society, is an unfortunate reality. Class society in which the proletariat dominates the capitalist (socialism) is necessary to build a classless society (communism). The gun is needed to abolish the gun. These are central principles of revolutionary socialism. Too many exposed themselves as reformists. What will happen when the imperialist war comes home? Will the “no war with China” activists flip into chauvinists when China inevtably has to defend itself? Or will communists be prepared to turn the imperialist war into a civil war? We are not at this stage now but the reaction of socialists in the West has not been encouraging.
To close, let us look at some statements from anti-imperialists of the Global South. They do not fence sit and they do not add disclaimers about Russia’s actions when talking about NATO’s aggression:
Nicolas Maduro, Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela: “From Venezuela we repudiate the perverse plans that seek to surround Russia militarily and strategically. All support for President Putin and his people. We are sure that Russia will come out of this battle united and victorious, with the admiration of the brave peoples of the world.”
Evo Morales, Movimiento al Socialismo: “NATO is a serious threat to international peace and security, its history of invasions and aggression proves it. Now, his expansionist intention is one of the main reasons for the situation in Ukraine. […] NATO is responsible for promoting this war.”
Bashar al-Assad, Ba'ath Party: “What is happening today is a correction of history and a restoration of balance in the global order after the fall of the Soviet Union. Syria stands with the Russian Federation based on its conviction that its position is correct and because confronting NATO expansionism is a right for Russia.”
Foriegn Ministry of DPRK: “The root cause of the Ukrainian crisis also lies in the high-handedness and arbitrariness of the U.S. which has held on solely to the unilateral sanction and pressure while pursuing only global hegemony and military supremacy in disregard of the legitimate demand of Russia for its security.”
I believe the United States is nothing but a paper tiger. […] Only when imperialism is eliminated can peace prevail. The day will come when the paper tigers will be wiped out. But they won't become extinct of their own accord, they need to be battered by the wind and the rain.
Strategically, we must utterly despise U.S. imperialism. Tactically, we must take it seriously. In struggling against it, we must take each battle, each encounter, seriously. […] we must continue to wage struggles against it, fight it with all our might and wrest one position after another from it. And that takes time.
US Imperialism is a Paper Tiger
Mao Zedong
so clear, so well researched and presented, so well done. also, thank you for recognizing the operations weaponised against our national liberation struggle: “Even in the US, we saw a shift into dealing with domestic colonies of the African diaspora and Indigenous nations through ideological operations such as diversity and inclusion.”
beautifully written! thank you for taking the time to make this presentation connecting this event to the global anti-imperialist struggle